PKR Poker - What chance does your hand have?
Odds and outs
Every time you sit down at a poker table, your prospects of winning are
determined by a combination of chance and your knowledge and skill. By improving
your knowledge and skill you can reduce your reliance on chance – and dramatically increase your winnings.
Go figure…
- Every time a player is dealt their hole cards, they receive one of 1,326
possible starting hands.
- If they don’t fold, they’ll see one of the 19,600 different possible flops.
- After the flop, there are 1,081 possible two-card combinations on the turn and
river.
- By the showdown, the winning hand will be one of the 2,598,960 possible five-
card hands.
Fancy your chances?
If you’ve ever wondered why you’ve never hit a Royal Flush, here’s why. Of the 2,598,960 possible hands you could get in a game of poker, only four are Royal Flushes (spades, clubs, hearts and diamonds). Do the math and that means that to realistically expect to hit a royal you’d have to play for eight hours a day, seven days a week for seven years. If you get one, relish the moment.
The odds of hitting hands in Texas hold ’em with all five cards on the board
| Name |
Example |
Possible Hands |
Odds |
| Royal Flush |
Ad – Kd – Qd – Jd – 10d |
4 |
649.739-1 |
| Straight Flush |
8s – 7s – 6s – 5s – 4s |
36 |
64.973-1 |
| Four of a kind |
As - Ad - Ac - Ah - 9s |
624 |
3.913-1 |
| Full House |
As - Ad - Ac - 9h - 9s |
3.744 |
589-1 |
| Flush |
Ah - Jh - 8h - 6h - 2h |
5.108 |
272-1 |
| Straight |
8d - 7s - 6c - 5h - 4s |
10.200 |
131-1 |
| Three of a kind |
As - Ad - Ac - 4h - 9s |
54.912 |
34-1 |
| Two pair |
As - Ad - 4c - 4h - 9s |
123.552 |
12-1 |
| Pair |
As - Ad - 6c - 4h - 9s |
1.098.240 |
Evens |
| No pair |
As - 8d - 6c - 4h - 9s |
1.302.540 |
- |
The deal
The odds of hole cards being dealt
| No pair and off suit |
0.4 - 1 (you'll get this sort of hand just over 70% of the time). |
| Suited |
3.25 - 1 |
| A pocket pair |
16 - 1 |
| Ace-King (both suited & non-suited) |
82 - 1 |
| A specific pocket pair (like: A-A, K-K) |
220 - 1 |
After the deal
With hole cards that are not a pair but are off suit, the odds of
flopping the following are…
| Pair |
2.5 - 1 |
| Two pairs |
49 - 1
|
| Three of a kind |
73 - 1 |
| Full House
|
1.087 - 1 |
| Four of a kind
|
9.799 - 1 |
A player’s chances of flopping at least one of the above is 2.1 – 1. So in other words, two thirds of the time your hand will not improve!
Pocket pairs
| Three of a kind |
8.3 - 1 |
| Full House
|
136 - 1 |
| Four of a kind
|
407 - 1
|
Probably the most revealing stat above, in terms of calculating pot odds, are the odds of flopping at least three of a kind or better: 7.5 –1.
Some other useful odds to remember
- A player with four cards of the same suit after the flop is 1.85:1 to make a
flush by the river.
- A player with an open ended straight draw is 2.2:1 to make at least a straight
by the river.
- A player holding an open-ended straight flush draw after the flop is .67:1 to
make at least a straight
by the river. That is, the player is more likely to
improve the hand than not improve it.
- A player drawing to an inside straight is around 11:1 to make it on the next
card.
Calculating outs
Cards left in the deck that can make your hand are called outs. So, the total number of cards left unseen that could make your hand are your total number of outs.
Let’s say you’re holding a drawing hand after the flop. You already know one important thing, you’re behind anyone who has hit a pair. Calculate your outs and you’ll know another, even more important, thing – your chances of beating that pair. Do this by dividing the number of outs that haven’t been seen with the number of cards that haven’t been seen – those are your chances of filling in your hand.
Let’s get down to cases. You’re holding Js, 10s against an opponent who’s holding Ac, 5d. The flop comes As, 8c, 9s. Even if your opponent has made top pair, you can win with any spade, any queen or any seven, giving you a total of 15 outs (the 7 remaining spades, four remaining queens and four remaining sevens). Even if you are behind after the flop you’re actually favored to win the hand IF all five cards come out on the board.
Here’s a useful tool. Compare the odds to your number of outs and you’ll have a handy guide for calculating pot odds.
| Total # of outs
|
Two cards to come
|
On the turn
|
On the river
|
| 20 |
0.48 - 1 (68%) |
1.3 - 1 (43%)
|
ber |
| 19 |
0.54 - 1 (65%)
|
1.5 - 1 (40%) |
1.4 - 1 (42%) |
| 18 |
0.6 - 1 (63%) |
1.6 - 1 (38%) |
1.6 - 1 (38%) |
| 17 |
0.67 - 1 (60%) |
1.8 - 1 (36%) |
1.7 - 1 (37%)
|
| 16 |
0.75 - 1 (57%) |
1.9 - 1 (34%) |
1.9 - 1 (34%)
|
| 15 |
0.85 - 1 (54%) |
2.1 - 1 (32%) |
2.1 - 1 (32%) |
| 14 |
0.95 - 1 (51%) |
2.4 - 1 (29%) |
2.3 - 1 (30%) |
| 13 |
1.1 - 1 (48%) |
2.6 - 1 (28%) |
2.5 - 1 (29%) |
| 12 |
1.2 - 1 (45%) |
2.9 - 1 (26%) |
2.8 - 1 (26%) |
| 11 |
1.4 - 1 (42%) |
3.3 - 1 (23%) |
3.2 - 1 (24%) |
| 10 |
1.6 - 1 (38%) |
3.7 - 1 (21%) |
3.6 - 1 (22%) |
| 9 |
1.9 - 1 (34%) |
4.2 - 1 (19%) |
4.1 - 1 (20%) |
| 8 |
2.2 - 1 (31%) |
4.9 - 1 (17%) |
4.8 - 1 (17%) |
| 7 |
2.6 - 1 (28%) |
5.7 - 1 (15%) |
5.7 - 1 (15%) |
| 6 |
3.1 - 1 (24%) |
6.8 - 1 (13%) |
6.7 - 1 (13%) |
| 5 |
3.9 - 1 (20%) |
8.4 - 1 (11%) |
8.2 - 1 (11%) |
| 4 |
5.1 - 1 (16%) |
11 - 1 (8%) |
11 - 1 (8%) |
| 3 |
7 - 1 (13%) |
15 - 1 (6%) |
14 - 1 (7%) |
| 2 |
10.9 - 1 (8%) |
23 - 1 (4%) |
22 - 1 (4%) |
| 1 |
22.4 - 1 (4%) |
46 - 1 (2%) |
45 - 1 (2%) |
* Note: all odds provided are odds against you making your hand. Anything where the first digit is below zero means that you are the favorite to win, anything above 1 – 1 means that you are an underdog.
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